Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.115075 2.227288 2.347758 2.487750 2.647337 2.825352 3.041533
2025-06-08 1.975209 2.116707 2.274853 2.467388 2.699434 2.975809 3.339649
2025-06-15 1.900331 2.063314 2.251157 2.488501 2.788230 3.166729 3.705434
2025-06-22 1.795500 1.964063 2.161809 2.417244 2.749243 3.184652 3.838612
2025-06-29 1.738357 1.916090 2.128447 2.409231 2.785801 3.301264 4.127041
2025-07-06 1.671653 1.851863 2.069825 2.362630 2.764008 3.330702 4.284394
2025-07-13 1.647989 1.838475 2.072849 2.394932 2.850855 3.525645 4.755616
2025-07-20 1.638893 1.842012 2.096582 2.455286 2.981964 3.806707 5.475052
2025-07-27 1.607784 1.815708 2.079430 2.457222 3.025897 3.952881 5.986126
2025-08-03 1.580169 1.792413 2.064616 2.460690 3.071382 4.107762 6.589886
2025-08-10 1.531147 1.739453 2.007634 2.399996 3.010158 4.060972 6.664724
2025-08-17 1.503930 1.714003 1.986660 2.390230 3.029468 4.166527 7.215235
2025-08-24 1.475168 1.686524 1.963056 2.377145 3.045451 4.275278 7.882469
2025-08-31 1.446950 1.658735 1.937749 2.359804 3.052356 4.366904 8.582393
2025-09-07 1.433045 1.649348 1.937245 2.379404 3.123591 4.607411 10.189240
2025-09-14 1.392735 1.603316 1.883763 2.314854 3.041488 4.494573 10.017695
2025-09-21 1.372868 1.584339 1.867769 2.307631 3.061245 4.618786 11.320433
2025-09-28 1.342949 1.550982 1.830350 2.265193 3.014017 4.578016 11.602738
2025-10-05 1.336815 1.549724 1.838458 2.294649 3.101039 4.881514 15.290110
2025-10-12 1.338410 1.558953 1.861783 2.349555 3.242193 5.373949 27.184583
2025-10-19 1.324570 1.546414 1.852896 2.351316 3.279732 5.592941 46.225350
2025-10-26 1.311773 1.534961 1.845161 2.354466 3.320284 5.836470 268.764733
2025-11-02 1.283429 1.501216 1.803601 2.299269 3.236346 5.658733 134.891987